Global Markets React to Geopolitical Shifts and Trade Rulings – May 29, 2025

ChartAddicts
May 29
2 min read

Key U.S. Economic Events Today

Scheduled Releases (Eastern Time):

8:30 AM

Prelim GDP (q/q): Forecast: -0.3% (Previous: -0.3%)
Unemployment Claims: Forecast: 229K (Previous: 227K)
GDP Price Index (q/q): Forecast: 3.7%

10:00 AM

Pending Home Sales (m/m): Forecast: -0.9% (Previous: 6.1%)

10:30 AM

Natural Gas Storage: Forecast: 98B (Previous: 120B)

11:00 AM

Crude Oil Inventories: Forecast: 0.3M (Previous: 1.3M)

Federal Reserve Speakers:

8:30 AM – Barkin
10:40 AM – Goolsbee
2:00 PM – Kugler
4:00 PM – Daly
8:25 PM – Logan

Market Outlook:This data-heavy day will drive early market volatility. GDP revisions and jobless claims will provide insight into economic momentum, while Fed speakers are expected to comment on inflation progress and interest rate path.

1. U.S. Court Blocks Trump's Broad Tariffs

A U.S. federal court has ruled that former President Donald Trump's extensive tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), exceed presidential authority. This decision halts many of the proposed tariffs, providing temporary relief to global markets. U.S. stock futures and the dollar rose following the ruling, reflecting investor optimism.

2. Russia Proposes Renewed Peace Talks with Ukraine

Russia has proposed a second round of peace talks with Ukraine to be held in Istanbul. This development has led to a strengthening of the Russian ruble, which reached a two-year high against the dollar, and has contributed to a slight decrease in global oil prices due to eased geopolitical tensions.

3. Iran Signals Openness in Nuclear Deal Negotiations

Iran has indicated a willingness to allow U.S. inspectors as part of a potential nuclear agreement, though it refuses to suspend uranium enrichment during ongoing talks. This stance introduces uncertainty into the negotiations, potentially impacting global oil markets and investor sentiment.

4. U.S.-China Trade Relations: Temporary Easing

The U.S. and China have agreed to a temporary reduction in certain tariffs, marking a pause in their ongoing trade tensions. While this has provided short-term relief to markets, underlying issues remain unresolved, and the potential for future escalations continues to pose risks to global trade stability.

Market Implications:

Equities: U.S. stock futures are modestly higher, with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) up 0.56%, reflecting positive investor sentiment following the court's tariff ruling.
Currencies: The Russian ruble's strength indicates investor optimism regarding potential de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
Commodities: Oil prices have slightly decreased due to eased geopolitical tensions, while gold remains relatively stable amid ongoing uncertainties.

Note: Market data is as of May 29, 2025, and subject to change.