ChartAddicts Daily Market Briefing – June 25, 2025

MARKET CONTEXT FOR TRADERS

Israel–Iran Ceasefire: Oil cools, but risk remainsThe Trump-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. However, early violations were reported, including minor rocket activity near the Golan Heights and militia movements in Southern Lebanon. The initial de-escalation has eased fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing oil prices lower.

Trade focus: Energy volatility is cooling, but traders should keep oil-sensitive names and FX pairs (e.g. USD/CAD) on the radar if new conflict erupts.

Trump Tariffs and Legal Fallout

President Trump is invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose new tariffs and establish import quotas without Congressional approval. The proposed cap on Mexican auto parts is raising industry concerns. Legal challenges argue IEEPA was never meant for long-term trade policy, and a federal case is pending.

Trade focus: Monitor auto and industrial stocks (F, GM), cross-border ETFs (EWW), and tariff-sensitive names.

Tech Surge and Nasdaq Strength

The Nasdaq 100 set a new high as mega-cap tech rallies on Powell’s rate cut guidance. ETFs like QQQ and XLK have attracted strong inflows, supported by ongoing AI momentum and a general risk-on shift in growth equities.

Trade focus: Tech momentum is alive. Traders should watch semis (NVDA, AMD), software leaders, and pullback opportunities in QQQ.

NATO Summit: Deepening Strategic DivideAt the NATO summit in The Hague, key sticking points include:

• Raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 (up from 2%)

• Future U.S. support for Ukraine, which remains uncertain

• Trump’s comments on Article 5 have triggered concerns about alliance stability

• Possible drawdowns of U.S. troops in Europe

• Rising emphasis on cybersecurity and hybrid warfare

Trade focus: Defense contractors (LMT, RTX, NOC), cybersecurity (PANW, CRWD), and defense ETFs (XAR, ITA) could see rotation.

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OTHER TRENDING STORIES

The “Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA):The GOP-backed tax and spending reform bill is being revised in the Senate. Key differences between House and Senate versions include:

• Tighter work requirements for Medicaid

• Phased elimination of green energy credits

• Permanent caps on SALT deductions

• Business tax breaks and tip/overtime tax cuts

• CBO projects a $2.8–3.4 trillion deficit increase over 10 years

Macro impact: Bond yields, growth projections, and fiscal stability debates are all in play. Traders should monitor market response to bill negotiations heading into July.

Other Headlines:

• Xero announces $2.5 billion acquisition of Melio in largest fintech deal of the year

• Saudi Arabia and UAE continue major investments in AI infrastructure and alliances

  
  

TRADER TAKEAWAYS

• The Israel-Iran truce is calming oil markets, but tail risks remain

• Tech is leading the rally on macro support, not just sentiment

• Trump’s trade posture is shaking global supply chains — legal and market fallout to watch

• NATO’s internal rifts add uncertainty to global security and defense investment flows

• The OBBBA bill could drive July volatility depending on final provisions

  
  

Summary: 

Markets are defying the noise for now, but the macro landscape is increasingly unstable. This is an environment that rewards discipline, fast reactions, and context-driven trading.